DEECA Renewable Fuels Program

Victoria Renewable Fuels Techno-Economic Model

Interactive tool to estimate the price of renewable fuels, residual fossil fuel demand after electrification, and the economic uptake, emissions abatement, and jobs impact of renewable fuel policy in Victoria to 2045.

Illustrative dataset – override any input
Active scenario: Economic transition
Renewable fuel uptake 2045
275 PJ/yr

from 89 PJ in 2025

Residual fossil demand 2045
20 PJ/yr

baseline 632 PJ

Emissions abated 2045
14.1 Mt

CO₂e vs no uptake

Fuel spend 2045
$7.5B

~33,603 FTE jobs

Milestone 1 · Renewable fuel price trajectories (AUD/GJ)
Levelised cost projections to 2045 for renewable hydrogen, green ammonia, methanol, renewable diesel, SAF, biomethane and biodiesel - including PtL and biogenic pathways - benchmarked against fossil reference prices.
2025 vs 2045 – levelised cost
Learning-curve driven cost reductions across pathways.
Native-unit prices
Converted to industry-standard units for reference.
Fuel202520352045CI
Renewable Hydrogen$6.96/kg$3.36/kg$2.16/kg5 gCO₂e/MJ
Green Ammonia (PtL)$1.15/kg$0.60/kg$0.41/kg8 gCO₂e/MJ
Bio-Methanol$42.0/GJ$32.0/GJ$28.0/GJ12 gCO₂e/MJ
e-Methanol (PtL)$70.0/GJ$36.0/GJ$26.0/GJ6 gCO₂e/MJ
Renewable Diesel (HVO)$1.73/L$1.37/L$1.22/L18 gCO₂e/MJ
e-Diesel (PtL)$3.24/L$1.66/L$1.15/L5 gCO₂e/MJ
SAF – HEFA$1.82/L$1.40/L$1.26/L15 gCO₂e/MJ
SAF – Alcohol-Jet$2.38/L$1.54/L$1.33/L18 gCO₂e/MJ
SAF – Fischer-Tropsch$2.73/L$1.61/L$1.26/L10 gCO₂e/MJ
SAF – PtL$3.85/L$1.82/L$1.26/L4 gCO₂e/MJ
Biomethane$28.0/GJ$22.0/GJ$18.0/GJ8 gCO₂e/MJ
Biodiesel (FAME)$1.25/L$1.06/L$0.92/L22 gCO₂e/MJ